In a major blow to former President Donald Trump's signature economic policy, the Supreme Court recently struck down his sweeping global tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). But as the dust settles, a new battle has erupted over the billions of dollars in tariffs already collected - and who gets to recoup that money.

Refunds in Limbo

The Supreme Court's ruling left a glaring gap on the issue of refunds, a point highlighted by dissenting Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who noted that the decision "says nothing today about whether, and if so how, the Government should go about returning the billions of dollars that it has already collected from importers."

According to estimates, the U.S. government has raked in as much as $175 billion in IEEPA tariffs since Trump first invoked the law in 2025. Now, companies are lining up to try and recoup those funds - but the path forward is anything but clear.

A Chaotic Refund Process Ahead

As trade lawyers have warned, the refund process could be a "bumpy ride" and a "complete mess" for both the government and importers. The issue will likely have to be hashed out across multiple courts and agencies, including the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and the specialized Court of International Trade.

"The amount of money is substantial," said trade lawyer Joyce Adetutu. "The courts are going to have a hard time. Importers are going to have a hard time."

The Bigger Picture

What this really means is that the fallout from Trump's tariff wars is far from over. Even with the Supreme Court striking down the legal basis for his most sweeping levies, businesses and consumers could be stuck in limbo for years as the complex refund process plays out.

The bigger picture here is that Trump's unilateral, go-it-alone approach to trade policy has left a tangled web that will take immense time and effort to unravel. As the BBC recently reported, the "constant changes in policy" and "lack of any clarity and certainty" have left businesses "frustrated and exasperated."

Ultimately, the fallout from Trump's tariff wars may continue to reverberate for years to come - and the quest for refunds is just the latest chapter in this ongoing saga.